Students investigate how climate change, weather, fuel, moisture, wind and landscape conditions can affect wildfire severity, then apply scientific knowledge to the 2026 Dunwich Heath wildfire case study and a changing incident response simulation. Across the strand, students use evidence, recognise uncertainty, model interactions and adapt decisions rather than oversimplifying complex wildfire events.
4 x 50 minutes (200 minutes)2026-27Main outcome: Evidence based conclusion, spread model, risk analysis, Command Challenge score and final conclusion
Strand at a glance
Lesson progression
The lesson sequence below comes from the complete strand guide.
1. CauseCause
Is Climate Change the Main Reason Wildfires Become More Severe?
Core learning
Wildfire severity is complex. Climate change can affect risk conditions, but weather, vegetation, ignition and land management can also contribute.
Main investigation
Evidence based discussion and debate comparing climate change with other interacting factors
Student product
Evidence Based Conclusion
2. SpreadSpread
What Makes a Wildfire Start and Spread?
Core learning
How the fire triangle, combustion, fuel, moisture, heat transfer, wind and fuel spacing can interact to affect wildfire spread
Main investigation
Build a Wildfire Cause and Spread Model and apply it to a landscape
Student product
Wildfire Cause & Spread Model
3. RiskRisk
Why Was Dunwich Heath Vulnerable to Wildfire?
Core learning
Apply wildfire science to the 2026 Dunwich Heath case study, analyse interacting risk factors and distinguish evidence from unsupported claims
Main investigation
Create a risk table, rank factors using evidence and write a case study conclusion
Student product
Risk Table + Risk Ranking + Case Study Conclusion
4. ResponseResponse
How Should Responders React When Wildfire Conditions Change?
Core learning
Use scientific evidence to make and adapt response decisions while considering people, ecosystems, uncertainty and changing conditions
Main investigation
Five round Dunwich Heath Wildfire Command Challenge using a classroom command map
Student product
Command Score + Final Science Conclusion
Detailed strand guidance
How the strand develops
Lesson 1: Cause
Driving Question: Is Climate Change the Main Reason Wildfires Become More Severe?
Students begin by questioning simple explanations for severe wildfires. They examine how climate change can affect wildfire risk while recognising that weather, vegetation, ignition sources, land management and human activity can also matter.
Students produce: Evidence Based Conclusion This requires them to use: Claim -> Evidence -> Reasoning -> Other Factors -> Limitation
Lesson 2: Spread
Driving Question: What Makes a Wildfire Start and Spread?
Students build on Lesson 1 by learning the science of wildfire ignition and spread. They study the fire triangle, combustion, fuel, moisture, heat transfer, wind and fuel spacing, then connect these factors in a scientific model. The lesson uses safe scientific modelling only and does not use real fire in the classroom.
Students produce: Wildfire Cause & Spread Model The model must show the fire triangle, at least four environmental factors, arrows showing how factors interact, a short explanation of higher risk areas and one limitation.
Lesson 3: Risk
Driving Question: Why Was Dunwich Heath Vulnerable to Wildfire?
This is the main real world case study lesson of the Science Strand. Students apply the science from Lessons 1 and 2 to evidence from the 2026 Dunwich Heath wildfire.
Students investigate:
exceptional heat, drought and very low rainfall
dry heathland vegetation acting as connected fuel
changing wind and changing direction of spread
difficult access for emergency crews
roots, organic material and animal burrows creating hidden hotspots
firebreaks used to interrupt connected fuel
evacuations and the effect of wildfire risk on people
damage to heathland, woodland and wildlife habitats
dangerous conditions that remained after visible flames reduced
the long term challenge of environmental recovery
the official conclusion that the ignition cause could not be determined
the difference between evidence based claims and unsupported speculation
Students then organise the evidence into a risk table and rank the most important influences on wildfire vulnerability or spread. They must justify their ranking and recognise that there is not one perfect order because some evidence remains uncertain.
Students produce: Risk Table + Risk Ranking + Case Study Conclusion The conclusion explains at least three factors that may have increased vulnerability, uses evidence from the case study and includes one uncertainty or limitation.
Lesson 4: Response
Driving Question: How Should Responders React When Wildfire Conditions Change?
This is the final Science lesson and synthesis lesson. Students bring together the ideas developed across the previous three lessons:
Cause from Lesson 1
Spread from Lesson 2
Risk from Lesson 3
To: Evidence Informed Response in Lesson 4
Students work in pairs as an incident command team using the Dunwich Heath Wildfire Command Map. Across five rounds, the situation changes through a new fire, a wind change, hidden underground heat, risk to the Holiday Park and the longer term recovery phase. Students must use scientific evidence rather than simply protecting their first decision.
The lesson follows: Investigate -> Decide -> Respond -> Adapt
Each round presents an incident update and three possible responses. Students discuss the evidence, choose a response, reveal the scientific outcome and keep a running score. The simulation repeatedly reinforces that decisions should change when evidence changes, surface observations may be incomplete, and wildfire response must consider both people and ecosystems.
Students produce:
Command Challenge Score /100
Final Science Conclusion
The final synthesis brings together interacting causes, wildfire spread, case study risk and evidence informed response. Students finish by identifying one vulnerability factor, one scientific response that can reduce wildfire risk and one key learning point from the Command Challenge.
Conceptual journey
The thinking behind the sequence
The Strand in One Sentence: Students move from questioning simple causes, to modelling how wildfire spreads, to analysing risk in the 2026 Dunwich Heath case study, and finally to applying science through evidence informed response decisions.
Cause: What contributes to wildfire severity?
Spread: How do fire and environmental factors interact?
Risk: Why was Dunwich Heath vulnerable to wildfire?
Response: How should scientific evidence guide decisions when conditions change?
CAUSE -> SPREAD -> RISK -> RESPONSE
The Science Strand therefore moves from explaining why wildfire severity is complex, to understanding the mechanisms of spread, to applying that science to a real case study and finally to using evidence to make and adapt response decisions.
Assessment evidence and skills
What students demonstrate
Each lesson produces a piece of work, giving students a clear record of their learning:
L1: Evidence Based Conclusion
L2: Wildfire Cause & Spread Model
L3: Risk Table + Risk Ranking + Case Study Conclusion
L4: Command Challenge Score + Final Science Conclusion
Across the strand, students practise using scientific evidence, recognising uncertainty, explaining multiple interacting factors, modelling wildfire spread, analysing a real case study and adapting decisions when conditions change.
Across the strand, students practise:
using evidence to support scientific conclusions
recognising uncertainty and avoiding unsupported claims
explaining how multiple factors can interact
building and evaluating scientific models
applying science to a real world wildfire case study
making and adapting decisions in response to changing evidence
The final Command Challenge produces a running score out of 100 across the five response rounds. The score is used alongside the Final Science Conclusion as evidence of how students apply Science when conditions change.